Pakistan's Psyche: Prudence & Providence II

continued from Pakistan's Psyche: Prudence & Providence I

After getting a peek into the psychology behind Pakistan's behaviour in the last post on the topic, here I am trying to put forth an audacious solution - maybe it has been thought of, maybe not and whatever the case, I am sure the Government, with the access to much more and sensitive info, would work on the best possible solution. Once before, I had mentioned the possibility of the Balkanization of Pakistan as a ray of hope for the subcontinent towards peace. Today, I wish to focus on another idea which I find more critical for long-term stability - covert intelligence eliminations or war.

"To be prepared for war is one of the most effective ways of preserving peace."

George Washington

It starts from the above but when the enemy either does not realize the basics or is compelled by their own self fulfilling prophecies to push towards physical engagement, one has to rethink. I continue from the fifth point I stated in the last blog - the control of Pakistan in the hands of the army. It is worthwhile to note, in the light of all the points shared in the earlier post, that the Pakistani Army, the ISI and the organizations they have their tea parties with, are compelled by the 'driving force' to continue hostilities against Bhaarat; without that, there would be an absence of its defined purpose of existence and without that, no value to live. Pakistan has squandered away over 67 years of time, energy and money for this very purpose evident in the quality of life led by the two neighbours and old habits die hard. Simply put, there is no scope for reason as long as the strings are shaken in Rawalpindi no matter how much the civilians or the political leaders desire peace with Bhaarat. (even that is under doubt) In the Dark Knight, Alfred makes a highly wise statement regarding the Bandit in Burmese jungles who would steal precious stones for pleasure, "Some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money; They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn. (In response to the solution for such bandits), We had to burn the forest down." The same is the case for Pakistan.

The solution - NATO needs to go in and uproot the Army, ISI and the allied terrorist network; then under the watchful eyes of the UN, a democratic state can be kick-started into motion while the protection of this newly formed government and the people lies with NATO or UNPKF.

Now when I say this, I can't stress enough how important it is that it be a joint global action to de-militarize Pakistan for it can't work out as an Indo-Pak conflict - primarily so given the global stakes and secondarily, as it would stress or even threaten our resources.

To ponder on de-militarization, we need to realize first that of the 67 years of independence, Pakistan has only seen a single democratic term being completed - it speaks volumes of the level of oppression and autocracy and the pressure to have a anti-India national policy. After World War II, the allies de-militarized Imperialist Japan; neither am I comparing a nation like Japan to Pakistan nor am I advocating any kind of Hiroshima-Nagasaki - I am merely drawing a parallel and bringing to notice what Japan issued as a statement post the de-militarization, "Economics is going to be the next battlefield; Japan will fight there for we no more need armies on the mud." Only sound economics can give Pakistan a chance into the light - save whatever is left there if the right economic policies are implemented and give its civilians a fighting chance towards development and progress in their lives.

The Cost-Benefit Analysis can be seen as follows:

Benefits -

1. Pakistan will be free of its militant leadership; democratically elected governments evoke a greater sense of probability and hope that state funds, time and efforts would be spent for the betterment of its citizens, not the destruction of others. It is a rock-bottom anyway, things can only be better if there is a functioning democracy; rather than the toothless, spineless 'whatever there is now'!
2. Pakistan's export prowess in wheat and textiles can go ahead further; expand and create jobs increasing global competition and having a positive effect on affordability.
3. Pakistan's topography, it's historical significance as India's younger brother makes it a potential tourism gold mine with the Sindhu flowing across. (All three above help Pakistan to 'stand up' post-war)
4. Moving away from Pakistan, with the terror networks dismantled, India benefits from the captivity of Hafiz Saeed and Dawood Ibrahim; Kashmir Valley will inch closer towards normalcy and the Separatists stand de-fanged.
5. We regain the geo-politically critical Gilgit-Baltistan opening up the vital connection with countries having broken up from the Soviet; and a land access to Europe.
6. Finally, a huge psychological victory over extremism will have repercussions everywhere across the globe against extremism and especially ISIS - it indicates global unity to go after miscreants and forces which may threaten world peace.

Costs:

1. The greatest cost would be the loss of civilian life, infrastructure - majorly in Pakistan and some decent extent in India and Afghanistan. That is a collateral which will be suffered along with the lives of NATO forces endangered. Can we pay that collateral?
2. Economic Impact across global markets can be seen temporarily threatening trade and enterprise as a nation like India has its borders turned into an active war zone.
3. There will be domestic and global ramifications as separatists and extremists will for sure term this as a global war on Islam and the world will need to be cautious given the rise of extremist Islam everywhere geographically, barring only the Americas if recent surveys are to be believed.
4. Nuke attacks - this is a common fear and one can't the probability of this happening. I for one find it remote given the entire process to scramble nukes and increasing defensive shields in place. If reports are to be believed, Pakistan's capability on fusion bombs is not encouraging and hence lags way behind India's. The threat is of Babur, their nuclear capable cruise missile having a 700km range or Pakistan's version of the Nirbhay - well, let us be honest, when can any war be fought without a probability and an event of collateral so let their missiles and our defense networks struggle it out (If we do manage to install the Iron Dome, we stand a better chance) - I am ready to die as part of the "civilian casualties" numbers as a by-product, if it can safeguard peace of billions.

To sum up all costs, I for one, find it worth the risk in the light of the benefits. To add emotions along with the analytic cost-benefit, it is high time that terrorism be put to an end given its exponential growth across the globe. With a strong India central to such a task, it is an opportunity which should not be missed. For too long have our soldiers complained over the lack of being empowered to respond in kind and that Pakistan is the epi-centre of terrorism is no secret. What is worth highlighting is that a similar line of thought has been discussed between the recent bi-lateral talks between Modi and Obama as shared in the joint statement in September.

To summarize, One has to admit, and I do too, that PM Modi and other global leaders will have better and complete information so would be better placed to take a call. Nevertheless, through such posts we can hope to raise the debate - can the concept of greater good be challenged and can de-militarization of Pakistan became 'the greater good' albeit at definite costs to the world? Can Pakistan ever recede on its terrorist activities as long as institutions like the Pakistani Army, ISI, LeT, JuD and more exist there, protected? It remains to be seen how far global powers are willing to fight this enemy and deal a knock-out or is it mere selfish lip service? Shouldn't Pakistani funding stop immediately? It is a matter of careful thought for the western nations on how serious they are against global terrorism - good or bad - there is no doubt anymore that it is bad; but is it uniform now? Either way, Bhaarat has to be ready for a continuous war - at home or away, physical or psychological, technological or economical. Understanding Pakistan's Psyche, the 'choice of prudence' by global leaders and with a slice of providence - we can hope for a solution which averts a much higher and powerful disaster to strike across the globe (read: an intercontinental terrorist network led by the ISIS as it joins hands with Boko Haram in Africa, Drug Mafia channels connecting the Pacific to the Atlantic and the Indian, sympathizers in US and UK over and above the numerous institutions in the sub-continent). Isn't it better to fight mortals today than Satan himself tomorrow?

Jai Hind!