It has been a slumber of sorts after May 2014. With intense battles over social media and otherwise for an extremely crucial national election, came the much needed respite and breathing space of a strong government at the centre. The last time I expressed my views through Livin' Free, my PM had moved the entire nation to tears and Livin' Free itself was just a blog. I am glad to update that it has moved on to a project, a sincere and passionate attempt to better the living world around through EI based, strength centered character development through eye-to-eye engagement and mutual growth. Please do visit the facebook page (Livin' Free) and share your opinions, suggestions, blessings and wishes.
In today's first part of a two part blog, I have decided to touch upon Pakistan's "adventurism", as the defense minister put it, the psychology behind it and an opening of a 'window' to resolve the matter.
I see a whole laundry list of reasons why Pakistan would initiate these attacks:
Firstly, The approaching winter each year has always been preceded by maximum violations across the border as militants are pushed into Indian territory and it merely confirms the trend.
Secondly, it has to be noted that the Indian PM received a thumping response in the recently concluded US trip. A balanced speech at the UNGA, an arousing and emotionally connecting one at Madison Square Gardens and the reception all around - across the physical space and the digital one - was simply unprecedented as observers have noted as nearly fifty American Congressmen flying to New York on a weekend to attend a function of a foreign leader! On this backdrop and the successes of meets with other heads of state, prominent among those are Shinzo Abe of Japan, Xi Jinping of China and Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, India's strength at the negotiating table on the global state is increasing. We always had the leverage, may it be the vast Indian-American community in the US (with a median annual income of $84000 compared to pan-America figure of $54000) similar to the leverage Israel has through the Jewish Banking community; or a global advantage of a young nation and highly populous one, for that matter, with the capacity to both produce and consume rendering us, one of the if not "the", self-dependent nation on the planet hence becoming a critical part of economic calculations of supply-demand and consumption of global products. (especially so for export driven economies like China) What has changed is that the world has been delivered a message that these levers can now be operated, I re-iterate - not to harm but to safeguard global and national interests which were undermined in the last 10 years. With all this, the world has calculated that it as not feasible to wrangle, arm-twist and attempt to cheat India on global platforms; and directly or indirectly, threaten India's interests - hence Modi has been welcomed. (grudgingly by some, affectionately by many) Coupled with Modi's talks with Obama and the strong joint statement against Pakistan regarding terrorism and funding has signaled the beginning of the end for Pakistan's terrorist activities. This has not gone down well with Pakistan, and naturally so.
Thirdly, the assembly elections in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh in the near future are crucial for the Pakistanis and Separatists. The stirring up of Kashmiri issues and the menace of anti-India sentiments is now fully contained within the valley from what I learn from available sources: Armymen, civilians, experts - some of whom I know personally. The shrinking of voter base as was evident in the national elections and the rise of Modi led BJP which won three out of six seats there has clearly backed the separatist elements ergo the Pakistani establishment in the corner. It is forecasted that BJP will have a major role to play in government formation in the region putting all anti-national elements on the tenterhooks that the so called "Kashmir Dispute" might actually see resolved (uni-laterally if need be) in the coming years - effectively snatching the bread-and-butter of these elements and installing a major hurdle in Pakistan's "Bleed India" campaign.
Fourthly, after all the technical or scientific points, I move on to ideology and culture - Pakistan throughout history has been based upon "Hindu Hatred" and the sole purpose of its existence as seen by the people there is to hurt our national interests. It is a reflection matter for them to just peek and see that India has reached Mars while they are still busy reaching Kashmir. The next-gen leaders finding the need to proclaim winning back Kashmir has summed it up. Pakistan is an irrational and suicidal state; no amount of reason and argument can work with such an institution when the only traction the institution gets among its nationals is when they act and talk anti-India - hence futile it is to "talk" with a nation which wants to prick Modi to sell their self-fulfilling prophecy at home.
Fifthly, we have to re-iterate that Sharif is not the man in charge in Pakistan. Rawalpindi dictates proceedings. This long standing observation of the mass is critical to the next part of this blog which would be posted in a week or so. It is only prudent to treat the disease - hit where the target is and it makes no sense otherwise.
Experts and Intellectuals are 'concerned' that an all out war might break open even resulting into a WWIII especially since Pakistan is threatening nuclear attacks. Remote as it seems, I won't deny possibility of the first part of the concern but the latter part is downright impossible. To understand that, one has to look at China which has always tacitly supported Pakistan as a counter-balance to India; it had been an extremely profitable proposition for China to support and merely supply materials to continue nuisance along India's north-western borders. As the latest confrontations have erupted, not surprisingly so, China has stayed quiet all the time for the past week. With Modi at the helm and pulling all the right levers, it is no more profitable for China to do anything that can possibly push US and India more closer. Pakistan has lost its closest and all weather supporter, albeit that support was for selfish reasons. China's entry was the only ray of light through the window for the argument of WWIII to hold true and that has been clearly junked by Chinese 'Chuppi'. As far as nuclear attacks go, it takes time to scramble nuclear missiles and it is not as easy as throwing stones at each other. (will write about it in more detail in the next part)
I would have said that let us still assume there might be a war but I have been pre-empted by the morning news as Pakistani firing has seen a sharp decline. Nevertheless, in the next part of this blog, keeping in mind the psychology presented I will put forth why I feel that a war might actually be a boon for people on both sides and the globe. I have always stressed that violence for the sake of violence is to be repulsed and condemned, but if violence leads to a better tomorrow, so be it. I have a concept in mind for a post-war Pakistan and I will attempt to communicate it as precisely as possible next time when I post and conclude this post.
Till then - Livin' Free!
Jai Hind!
Jai Hind!
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