Bihar : Burnt and Bruised BJP ....

On 10th February 2015, BJP was pummeled to a 3-67 scoreline in Delhi Assembly. Many of us supporters in BJP considered that to be a blip. Few were audacious enough to suggest that it was a deliberate sabotage internally to restrict AAP in a classic pawn sacrifice given the legislative and executive dwarf that the Delhi Assembly and Delhi CM position is. Nevertheless, a similar turn of events in Bihar Assembly 2015 have a few serious questions coming up in the context of national interest at heart.

(Note: Comments throughout the blog are based on numbers as of 1 PM of results day)

Firstly, election after election, a common trend can be seen nationally is that of a strong polar association with "a leader". It was a ground reality and a recognition even with BJP supporters that the Bihar Asssebly elections 2015 were going to be a highly uphill task because Nitish Kumar had performed as CM, period. There were very few bullets left to be fired against him per say for his governance and administration. The BJP were left with attacking RJD and I(A)NC and the people of Bihar have clearly not given a damn to it. India's electoral process has evolved to this "presidential style" of politics and it seems a mandatory condition to have one (and possibly a small rung) of local leaders who can give face to state campaigns. Modi won in 2014 Lok Sabha because he managed to turn it into a national leadership competition and the only competitors he could have had were from the BJP itself and hence NDA romped through on the back of the development promise.

Secondly, it is no way about caste consolidation or else the NDA could not have secured 38% vote share against the Mahagathabandhan's 42% given its traditional "upper caste" votes not being sufficient to take BJP to 38%. The people of Bihar en bloc identified with Nitish Kumar as their leader and for good reasons without a doubt; that identification worked because nothing else could explain I(A)NC increasing their tally from 4 to 21 seats (a freakish 50%+ strike rate). Just like many of us voted for other NDA allies even against personal reservations when it came to Lok Sabha 2014 to ensure Modi becomes the PM, people of Bihar have voted through and through for Nitish Kumar - to the extent that RJD becomes the single largest party in the assembly with 74 seats (same as NDA put together)

Thirdly, in Lok Sabha 2014, anti-Modi forces were divided while anti-Modi forces were united this time. They understood that Modi led BJP can only be stopped in a case where they unite. Modi is no superman or Neo from the Matrix to take up all agents at one go and not suffer a scratch. Governing a country similar to having 29 different countries clubbed together is no mean task and Modi can't morph into a 29 different local leaders when the need arises. Modi has been overused and the electorate knows it is unwise to vote for Modi when he is not going to be their CM. Simply put, the electorate is not anti-Modi, they were just pro-Nitish who consolidated with anti-Modi.

Fourthly, all the clamour of the waning "Modi Magic" is hilarious even in his defeat. His rallies attracted the majority strength among all campaigners in Bihar which was evident by the sea of humans in the rallies vis-a-vis the Mahagathabandhan's sparse motley mela gathering. It is clear than the trust in him is intact; but there is no visible connect with local leadership. Electorate is getting clarity by every election towards a reformed system of political leadership and "Bollywood Superstar" effect is no longer in traction; in short, "Tell me who will be my leader or get lost!"

Fifthly, Lalu's RJD getting seats is no mystery; all throughout, Lalu has used state mechanisms to ensure that the Yadav-Muslim combine prospers under his patronage and it is more likely that the Sun will rise in the west before this combine ditches him. It is no doubt a selfish thought from his followers, but the stark reality, no doubt. The magnitude of his seat wins is what must have surprised many of us. It confirms that the threat of Jungle Raaj was deemed less powerful by the Bihari electorate facing the image of "Sushaasan Babu" Nitish. It is clear as crystal that Bihar believes that Nitish can keep Lalu in check and hence Nitish's supporters have transferred their votes to Lalu to ensure that Nitish became CM. Lalu's assurance that even if RJD secures more seats, Nitish would stay CM raised his stature though it was a Hobson's choice for both of them in the political context. Well played by the sly fox.

Thus, in the wake of these results, there are definitely some takeaways for all stakeholders. We as the civilians of India do need to go through them to predict the coming future.

For Modi led BJP:

1. Modi is not God - face it. I don't know who decides to project him in every election as the lead campaigner, but for the second time in a row, that has been proved not enough no matter how much we all enjoy his showmanship. As a hardcore Modi supporter and a BJP loyalist, it is part of my duty to share the thought that local cultivation is must. Modi can act as a national support, but local assembly elections have to be helmed by strong local leaders.

Fadnavis in Maharashtra, Raghubar Das in Jharkhand and Manohar Lal Khattar in Haryana have been strong leaders in their respective states which the electorate identified with and hence their success in partnership with the Modi assault. (Similar was seen with Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh and Manohar Parrikar in Goa) Both times when BJP has lost in recent memory is when local leadership was absent (Arvind Kejriwal towered in Delhi while Nitish in Bihar; maybe some attempt of projecting Dr.Harshvardhan in former case and Sushil Kumar Modi in latter would have ensured a different outcome probably; not decisive maybe, but better nevertheless) So even if local leaders don't have the stature of their opponents, it is important to pitch them through and fight with them.

2. Propaganda works - though nothing Bhagwat said was incorrect or immoral; its twisting will now work wonders. I am not saying that it garnered more votes in the assembly elections - that is not a factor is my strong belief as I had indicated earlier but opposition will sell it as a reason for debacle ensuring a brownie point in the wars of perception. Statements with the MSM have to be weighed. Modi will have to seriously consider acting against the #presstitute bunch some way or the other. I can understand the difficulties but then at least some measures can be taken - limit exposure and let only the pros handle this anti-national bunch. Social Media narrative is still strong with him and BJP and the national support he garners is still enviable for all enemies - a state defeat should not be interpreted as a national rejection as vindicated by the strength of his rallies as I mentioned earlier.

3. Gear up for the future; the coterie of anti-nationalism nexus of foreign funded NGOs, terrorist organizations, Naxalite institutions - violent or otherwise, political parties like I(A)NC etc will gain more strength (Note: the glee on Raul Vinci's face while addressing the media; he for one believes that he ensured this victory for the Mahagathabandhan) At the same time, please don't be swayed with the "introspection" and "intolerance" advice of a horde of intellectuals and political opponents. Yes, things need to be reworked and realigned but DON'T commit the mistake Vajpayee did when he let go of the core ideology of BJP to some extent to adjust for existence in India's democracy. Times are clearly different and decisive one-sided mandates are becoming a norm and hence let us repair what is broken and not replace each and every facet of BJP.

4. Irrespective of the extent of truth in statements of those campaigning for Pakistan's tourism industry, these comments are idiotic to the core. Taking action against them might hurt their supporter mobilization but then some way has to be found out to explain to their "kid brains" that what they are doing is detrimental - it is very easily used against the party to the extent that even a helpless Modi has to speak about his caste and reservation as against the beautiful message of development he delivers. In short, a decisive course in Chanakya is required for the entire Parivar - stay silent and do a great favour. Loyalists like we #Bhakts are taking care of retorts - let us work as a team.

5. The most important - economics has to stay at the forefront. Economic agenda can't be derailed for any reasons for that is the only way towards prosperity which can ensure electoral success in the future for the party. Ideology, culture, caste etc all fall off the track when it comes to longevity. If economics is fortified, culture and ideology will be re-instated and strengthened as an automatic result. Reforms need to be pushed through and those which don't need legislative approval have to be fast tracked - keep up the excellent economic performance of the last 18 months and build on it. That will be the strongest weapon in the arsenal in 2019.

A few ending comments - Bihar has reposed great faith in Nitish; man! - they voted for even RJD and Raul Vinci's I(A)NC - purely out of trust in Nitish's ability and leadership. They are expecting him to limit Lalu's interference and corruption in governance to deliver progress for Bihar. As much as I hope that he delivers for Bihar, I don't see it happening simply because Lalu will be probably ending with more seats than him and old habits die hard. Even if Nitish sees greater success than Lalu, he will be equally dependent on him to stay in power. There is great scope for his image of "Sushansan Babu" tarnished if Lalu's thugs run amok and I pray that he can stay in control. A selfish interest of being CM and staying in control has led to all his decisions which are favouring him as of now, but let us hope it does not turn costly for Bihar. If it starts becoming so, hope BJP and JD(U) both explore possibilities for the sake of Bihar; more so for the former to prevent any arm twisting in the Bihar Government.

Finally, BJP has lost the most in this election; only Lalu's RJD is the one to gain is my firm belief. Even Nitish Kumar is a loser in the greater context. Nitish has won the battle but lost the war. BJP has lost the battle but can hope to win the war if course correction is done while Lalu has won the battle and even will win the war simply because he will jump to a different battlefield every time he is in a position to lose the fight. For I(A)NC, it is nice to see the gloating of Raul Vinci for it is going to accelerate the irrelevance of I(A)NC. It will be nice if his stooges believe he won them Bihar!

Modi led BJP has a challenge of resurrection and resurgence; Congress Mukt Bhaarat is still strong a sentiment and needs to be built upon the message of development. Just because they were rejected does not mean development was. This and the last election in Bihar both indicate that Nitish is the fulcrum of Bihar politics and that is because he carried the message of development - it is a win for BJP that the plank they believe in is victorious even if they have had to walk off the plank this time. Build on it, Dear Bhaaratiya Janta Party - scores like me stand with you for it. We have already begun well by extending congratulations to the victors, expressing that developmental packages are here to stay as promised.

Nitish led JD(U) has a challenge to ensure that the Lantern does not snuff out the lights in Bihar resulting in darkness in the land of Chanakya.

All the very best to both and may that which is in the best interests of Maa Bhaarati, happen.

Jai Hind!