Last November when I had published 'Bihar: Burnt and Bruised BJP', the level of disappointment I was experiencing then as part of 'the Parivar' was at the same level that satisfaction I am experiencing now with the results of Assam, Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. There is tremendous significance to what has transpired and I personally believe that 19th May 2016 is second only to 16th May 2014, if the events of the recent past are to be observed, for the future of Bhaarat.
In Assam, given the huge influx of illegal immigrants to the point that Bangladeshi Muslims constitute more than 30% of the total population of Assam which now has a 35% Muslim demography, BJP could push its 'Assamese Identity' objective squarely into the electoral mud; and with the best nationalistic credentials of the parties in play, it ensured consolidation. More importantly, BJP rectified its mistakes from Delhi and Bihar by declaring right when the race began, that Sarbananda Sonowal will be the CM candidate. The experience of a Tarun Gogoi-Raul Vinci-I(A)NC disenchanted Himanta Biswa Sarma too had a massive role to play and in terms of the Crazyhouse variant of Chess, it was the biggest capture for BJP. Though BJP's voteshare ended up being 150 basis points lesser than I(A)NC at 29.5%, it is key to note that the strike rate was much higher at 68.9% as against 21.3% for the latter.
In Kerala and West Bengal, two states whose political discourse has been dominated by Left led violence, arson and plundering, BJP has increased its voteshare to 15% and 10.7% respectively with the inaugural seat win in the former by O Rajagopal - a veteran not giving up in spite of legislative losses of 30 years.
In Tamil Nadu, we had expected a vertical split and we got a vertical split. BJP's 2.8% voteshare and absence from the assembly is not something to talk about but the increasing organizational strength is noteworthy. In the presence of a powerful Amma, BJP will have to bide its time.
With the above turn of events, there are positives galore to take away:
1. BJP's steadily expanding political space augurs well for the nation as a whole - nationalism, free market economics and development is not just striking few chords but playing the music of a maestro. (incidentally the last point is one of the reasons why BJP lost Bihar to Nitish in the first place) India is moving (albeit slowly it may seem) from being cheated by politicians with fake promises to being wise on politics - slowly understanding feasibility studies and more.
2. Socialist philosophies which work against the nation's development agenda are losing footing at an accelerating speed; the Left's blob in TN has put it on the verge of losing its national party status while resounding losses in Bengal to a woman who along with her party is embroiled in Sarada, Narada, Malda and more speaks for itself. Bengal can't walk on two left feet and Left's space and practices of hooliganism, anti-capitalism, terrorism and more has been taken over by TMC. It is a sad reality for Bengal that it has a choice between TMC and the Left - either way, they are doomed to suffer. I(A)NC, which has crippled quite a lot of economic activity in the country for more than sixty years are now reduced to a limited stewardship of only 6% of India's total population with Karnataka being the only dominant state they lead and which I doubt they can hang on to given that a wounded Tiger and Lingayat strongman BS Yeddyurappa, is hell bent for revenge - to take back what he was cheated and framed out of; with the Karnataka HC clearing all malicious charges planted against him, he is on the prowl already for what is to come two years down the line.
3. The return of Jayalalitha and Mamata in their respective states and the homecoming of Sarbananda in Assam is reinforcing the new thumb rule of electoral flows in India - strong local leaders to lead in the states are must. Irrespective of the reservations against both of the ladies, they are much better choices in context I must say over a DMK whose corruption levels are too high to measure and a Left whose bloody past is too huge to ignore, respectively. With both showing inclination to support the GST, central reforms might have a few obstacles less to jump over.
4. Performance and appeal is besting dynasty time and again, hands down! This was vindicated with the sorry faces cut by Gaurav Gogoi, M.K. Stalin and the priceless Raul Vinci. Dynasty is not a concept to be alarmed of but without the right intent and capability, it becomes a curse - should be too.
5. Centre and State are being marked into tangible and discernible domains - this can be a great shot in the arm for co-operative federalism. When the threat of loss is negated to an extent and the incentives electorally of delivering on development are visible, it seems highly likely that strong state leaders will try delivering on development. There should not be a conflict of interest and Modi's words 'Let us compete on who develops their respective states more' has become a mantra if not the policy.
6. The likely political isolation of I(A)NC and the walk off the plank - allying with I(A)NC has not benefited anyone at all, except the opponents. Parties will think twice before doing so in the future - BSP and SP have that choice to make soon. I(A)NC's stalling tactics will boost the law of diminishing returns. The attempt to hijack legislation for the grand family's crimes will get more difficult by the day. The loss of RS nominations and the reduction in ability to get their tallest leaders re-elected is indication enough that states have deserted the I(A)NC in its current form. A rudderless, brainless clown can't lead them back to glory - frankly, they need an Indira and BJP's singular threat is Indira alone, i.e Priyanka Vadra. It is utmost important for the BJP now to ensure the security and safety of the Raul Vinci and Sonia Maino lest they turn into patriotic heroes - their existence and talk (especially of the former) is must for electoral success. I(A)NC has a lot of crimes to pay for and nation should not be in any mood to allow them off the hook. It is wishful thinking maybe to expect I(A)NC to break into two factions - Gandhi loyalists and India loyalists; the latter can bring in a lot of expertise and constructive wisdom to polity.
7. Finally, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangha has literally bled profusely to see the day as we see it today. From facing scores of violent attacks and murders of pracharaks by Islamists/Leftists in West Bengal & Kerala to being tortured and executed by Christian Missionaries in Tamil Nadu and the NE; from being harassed in their daily lives for ideological leanings to facing abuse - physical and mental - in the form of attacks on their daughters and sisters - this is a 'Rhushi' like penance that has achieved salvation one must say. The growth in difficult hostile territories has now become sustainable and real. We will lose more men as collateral in a bloody war against the anti-national Left extremists and their overground collaborators in the form of the Media and NGOs, but at least now, we can strike back a few punches too.
7. Finally, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangha has literally bled profusely to see the day as we see it today. From facing scores of violent attacks and murders of pracharaks by Islamists/Leftists in West Bengal & Kerala to being tortured and executed by Christian Missionaries in Tamil Nadu and the NE; from being harassed in their daily lives for ideological leanings to facing abuse - physical and mental - in the form of attacks on their daughters and sisters - this is a 'Rhushi' like penance that has achieved salvation one must say. The growth in difficult hostile territories has now become sustainable and real. We will lose more men as collateral in a bloody war against the anti-national Left extremists and their overground collaborators in the form of the Media and NGOs, but at least now, we can strike back a few punches too.
To finish, the rise of nationalism and occupancy of a position which gives an equal chance to deal has restored Bhaarat's chances no doubt. In such a context, 19th of May 2016 is a sweet sweet day indeed for there are bases covered and wins achieved in away conditions now! Looking ahead, unless the BJP messes up in the next three years (highly unlikely given their push on the troika of electricity, infrastructure and jobs), I see Modi romping back to power at the Centre. His challenger has to cobble up a front of towering egos with each looking in a different direction which is just too volatile to be able to succeed. The improbable ego tagging coupled with bright prospects of a strong monsoon and the reaping of the ground work (Rural Electrification, National Highways, Digital India, Skill India, Make in India, DBTL, Jan Dhan, Social Security, Crop Insurance, Soil Cards) done in the past two years should usher in 'Acchhe Din' soon:
Jai Hind!
No comments:
Post a Comment