Feds and its Fibs II

This blog is a continuation from Feds and its Fibs I.

Inflation is weakening of the value or ability of money to purchase goods & services. If I used to buy a kilo of apples for Rs. 100 some years back but I can buy only 750 gms today for the same Rs. 100, that implies there has been inflation. So, if there is severe inflation in the US as I have referenced in the previous part, it is but natural to wonder why has the US$ appreciated against most world currencies unlike what happened with Argentina or Venezuela or Zimbabwe or Sri Lanka when these countries started facing high inflation vs their respective historic averages. For instance, vs. the INR, US$ rate has moved from 72.99 to 79.71 in the past one year (it had briefly crossed the 80-mark as well) and vs. the EUR, it has moved from 0.84 to a parity of 1. (I have deliberately ignored CNY because of the managed floating system China follows where the CNY is pegged to the US$ based on the People's Bank of China's reference rate). This economic principle defying behaviour is the greatest shield the US$ and the USA has had over past so many decades.

Feds and its Fibs I

The US Federal Reserve (The Fed) conducts its annual economic symposium in the Jackson Hole mountain valley and the event is keenly watched by economists and financial experts around the globe for it has now come to witness presentation on major US monetary policy decisions and commentary on the road ahead for the world's largest economy. The event's highlight is the Fed Chair's speech and this year's roughly 8 minute readout by Fed Chair Jerome Powell was truly representative of the classic deer in the headlights moment. The Fed's commentary continues to confirm critical implications for the global economy in the wake of the COVID pandemic and hit by high inflation. Empty vessels clang the most, it is said. The fact that that the Fed has been talking a lot and acting little personifies the idiom. To delve into this, I shall be publishing a two-part blog. In the first, I intend to explore the genesis of the US' inflation problem and present circumstantial & tangible evidence on the Fed's cognitive dissonance while creating this problem. In the second, I wish to put forth the argument on why is it now going to be quite different than what it used to be in the past and what may Bhaarat look forward & adapt to.

Budget Betrayal

It is that time of the year when the talk on tax slabs heats up and #Budget2022 was no different in evoking another set of strong yearly reactions with the Finance Minister not even tinkering the slabs & slab rates to the benefit of the salaried and middle class. The economy & citizenry was hit by the pandemic, especially so by the second wave which recorded a significant loss of lives & livelihood. If ever there was a time of extending relief and mitigating the slipping back of families into 'poverty', this was it. Yet, the GoI severely disappointed the middle class and hence the natural outpouring of justified emotions. There was a time when taxing was considered a sanctioned loot by the government; from there, we have reached a point where I see so many positive voices expressing that taxes are being put to good use and hence the resistance of these individuals to governments collecting personal income tax has reduced significantly. From a blanket pessimistic view, this year's budget has witnessed a progressive and constructive expression of angst that the middle class income taxes are the major financiers of the welfare & freebies. In today's blog, I seek to explore this statement.

Virus, Vista and Vedas

The receding second wave of the #ChineseCommunistVirus in May 2021 has witnessed a much higher death toll than the first wave and that has naturally led to further fraying of emotions. I saw multiple arguments afloat during this time, that focused on targeting any activity/expenditure from the government or even private institutions that was not directly connected to fighting the pandemic. The notable targets were the Central Vista and the ongoing construction of the Raam Mandir. In today's blog, I intend to present certain perspectives at play divided into three sections - one, base facts on the health sector & more; two, a micro-level inspection of the fabled Temple vs Hospital or Religion vs Science or Economic Projects vs Human health arguments and three, a macro level presentation on Bhaarat's Temple Ecosystem. I am hoping that the write-up will nudge the reader to give a nice thought - take what appeals to him/her and leave everything else behind.

In Queue, In Quandary

A few days back, I had posted a small Facebook write-up - a set of three Q&A on vaccine pricing with a hope that it would answer queries of those genuinely interested in seeking answers while demonstrating either the ignorance or the malice of the other kind, aka Left Liberal educated intellectuals. Today, I am going to present a write-up offering perspectives on the process which preceded vaccine pricing, i.e. its supply chain. This blog is an outcome of my wife's insistence for presentation on this topic as she is totally peeved with unreasonable charges being thrown across the table ignoring the supply chain management concepts of queuing, run-rates, inventory, cash conversion cycle and capex (or capital investment). Letting her stay peeved is not in my best interests - physically as well as emotionally, hence - In Queue, In Quandary. Using basic daily life examples and avoiding complication of the financial terms mentioned in the previous sentence, I'll present a simple food-for-thought perspective on this topic. By the end of the write-up, I am hoping I would have unboxed few of the answers to some of the questions swirling around, such as the following:

1. Why the Centre doesn't procure vaccines for all its people unlike some western nations?

2. Is there a vaccine shortage and production deficiency? If so, why not ramp-up?

3. Why have we not halted vaccine exports and rather, why are we not importing additional vaccines?

Costs of a Crisis

In Sep 2020, I had written a blog titled Greenwoods for the GDP on the backdrop of massive liberal & opposition outcry as the FQ12021 GDP fell by 23.9% y/y. In the blog, I had presented the economic background on why the fall was inevitable, how it stands in context of our country's fight with the #ChineseCommunistVirus as well as certain socio-economic comparisons with the developed world. I had also mentioned how our leadership chose to take the middle road by attempting a balance between lives & livelihood, the two twins in any crisis. Eventually, I had remarked that how the Left Liberal Ecosystem would have gone to town over fatalities if not the GDP fall had India chosen to be as brazen as say the USA when it comes to restrictions and safety protocols. Seven odd months down the line, the ecosystem has found that long lost twin called lives ironically in the Kumbh Mela in Haridwar. Given that the fabled ecosystem has found this twin after pompously expressing mock concern over the other twin called livelihood back in Sep 2020, I thought about taking up this opportunity to present the twin sides associated with any crisis taking the example of Kumbh Mela in Haridwar.